Where’s the “intelligence explosion”?

This webpage features an essay by futurist Ramez Naam on Noahpinion, where he offers a skeptical take on the concept of an AI "intelligence explosion" driven by recursive self-improvement. While many in the AI industry expect a sudden "fast takeoff" to superintelligence as models begin improving themselves, Naam argues that current data shows the self-improvement feedback loop is not yet strong enough to sustain a runaway singularity.