Scenarios for our Economic Future

This project explores how advanced AI could affect long-term economic outcomes. We consider a range of plausible scenarios driven by differences in AI capabilities, deployment speed, market structure, and policy responses. Our goal is to map out key variables, possible trajectories, and strategic decisions that could influence whether AI leads to broadly shared prosperity, concentrated power, or economic dislocation.

We present scenario narratives, model assumptions, and suggested research directions for policymakers, researchers, and industry stakeholders. Each scenario highlights the mechanisms driving economic change—productivity gains, labor displacement, changes in competition, and the role of regulation—and discusses policy levers to steer outcomes toward broadly beneficial futures.

Read on for detailed scenario descriptions, underlying assumptions, and implications for governance and further study.